flpg monthly property newsletter edition 04
📈 March 2026 Residential Property Market Report
Edition 04 | Futureland Property Group
Stability forming. Growth rotating. Policy uncertainty rising.
March’s data confirms what we’ve been signalling since late 2025 — the national market has found its footing. However, growth is no longer broad-based. It is selective, yield-sensitive, and increasingly influenced by macro policy discussion — particularly around Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
Below is your full capital city breakdown and strategic outlook.
🇦🇺 National Overview
According to SQM Research (Week Ending 02 March 2026)
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
:
National House Asking Price: $1,096,109 (+1.7% rolling month)
National Unit Asking Price: $651,659 (+1.2% rolling month)
National Combined Dwelling Price: $999,522 (+1.7% rolling month)
Despite minor weekly fluctuations, rolling monthly figures remain positive — confirming underlying resilience.
Key Takeaway:
The correction phase has largely passed. The market is now transitioning into a stabilised growth cycle — uneven, but constructive.
🏙 Capital City Snapshot
Sydney
Houses: $2,191,110
Units: $907,946
Combined: $1,667,007
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Sydney remains capital-growth driven, but affordability ceilings are reshaping buyer behaviour. Unit demand is strengthening relative to detached housing. Development feasibility remains tight unless targeting premium stock.
Melbourne
Houses: $1,344,415
Units: $682,416
Combined: $1,134,758
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Melbourne is stabilising after a multi-year moderation cycle. Counter-cyclical entry opportunities exist, particularly in well-located middle-ring suburbs. Unit growth outperformance suggests affordability-led demand recovery.
Brisbane
Houses: $1,454,465
Units: $875,560
Combined: $1,308,317
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
SEQ remains one of the most structurally undersupplied markets nationally. Migration, infrastructure investment, and constrained new stock continue to underpin resilience. Land acquisition discipline remains critical for developers.
Perth
Houses: $1,263,090
Units: $785,199
Combined: $1,137,593
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Perth continues to lead on rolling monthly growth metrics. Yield strength is supporting price growth, but construction cost modelling must remain conservative in new development feasibility.
Adelaide
Houses: $1,167,448
Units: $622,707
Combined: $1,069,322
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Adelaide maintains steady underlying support, driven by relative affordability and comparatively stronger rental yields versus eastern states.
Canberra
Houses: $1,260,578
Units: $610,181
Combined: $1,014,725
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Short-term softness is evident, but long-term stability remains underpinned by public sector employment and consistent demand fundamentals.
Hobart
Houses: $891,740
Units: $521,477
Combined: $835,109
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
Futureland Insight:
Hobart remains a secondary, yield-sensitive market. Performance will likely track broader investor sentiment and interest rate expectations.
🏠 Rental Market Conditions
Vacancy rates remain structurally tight across most capital cities, reinforcing rental growth momentum
SQM Capital Cities Summary Page
.
Futureland Insight:
Investor cash flow positions are improving nationally. Rental inflation remains elevated, and policy pressure around affordable housing supply is likely to intensify throughout 2026.
🧾 Capital Gains Tax (CGT) — Why It Matters in 2026
CGT is back in national discussion ahead of the May Federal Budget.
Current Settings (ATO 2025–26)
ATO - CGT Discount Information
:
50% CGT discount for individuals (held ≥ 12 months)
50% discount for trusts
33.33% discount for super funds
Main residence generally exempt
ATO - CGT Exemptions
Up to 60% discount possible for qualifying affordable rental housing
ATO - CGT Discount Information
CBA confirms the 50% discount model introduced in 1999 remains in place, but is under active review via Senate inquiry
CBA - Capital Gains Tax Reform
.
🔎 What Happens If CGT Is Reformed?
If Discount Is Reduced:
After-tax returns decline.
Investor demand may soften at the margin.
Development exit pricing could compress.
Long-term hold strategies may shorten.
If Settings Remain:
Long-term capital growth remains tax efficient.
Investor participation likely stable.
Feasibility modelling remains predictable.
Futureland Insight:
CGT influences behaviour — particularly timing of sales and investor IRR — but supply, migration, interest rates, and construction constraints remain the dominant structural drivers of price movement.
🧠 Futureland Strategic Outlook — March 2026
National market stabilised.
Rental markets remain undersupplied.
SEQ and WA continue to show strongest momentum.
CGT debate introduces uncertainty — not systemic collapse risk.
Developers must stress-test feasibility models against:
Exit value sensitivity
Holding period adjustments
Tax scenario overlays
Markets reward discipline, not emotion.
